The Lichtman keys, developed by Allan Lichtman, are a set of 13 true/false statements used to predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Here's a quick rundown of the keys:
1. **Party Mandate**: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. **Contest**: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. **Incumbency**: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. **Third party**: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. **Short-term economy**: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. **Long-term economy**: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. **Policy change**: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. **Social unrest**: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. **Scandal**: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. **Foreign/military failure**: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. **Foreign/military success**: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. **Incumbent charisma**: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. **Challenger charisma**: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
To use the Lichtman keys to predict the outcome:
1. Compare each key against the current political and economic conditions.
2. If six or more keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. Otherwise, it is predicted to win.
Let's apply this to a hypothetical 2024 election with Kamala Harris as the incumbent-party candidate and Donald Trump as the challenger, assuming the current situation continues:
1. **Party Mandate**: True (Democrats need to hold the House).
2. **Contest**: True (Assuming no serious challenger to Kamala).
3. **Incumbency**: False (Harris is not the incumbent president).
4. **Third party**: True (Assuming no significant third party).
5. **Short-term economy**: True (Assuming no recession).
6. **Long-term economy**: False (Economic growth is under scrutiny).
8. **Social unrest**: False (Sustained social unrest could be argued).
9. **Scandal**: False (Depends on ongoing investigations).
10. **Foreign/military failure**: True (No major failures).
11. **Foreign/military success**: True (Assuming some successes).
12. **Incumbent charisma**: False (Harris's charisma is debated).
13. **Challenger charisma**: True (Trump has charisma).
If 6 or more of these keys turn false, Harris would be in trouble. Based on a rough estimate, Harris has around 4 likely "false" keys, suggesting the race could be close.
Tax those who make over $400,000 per year on a bell curve to a maximum of 60% for those who make 2 million or more per year. It would equate to 40% to 60% on those top 5 percent earners.
The Lichtman keys, developed by Allan Lichtman, are a set of 13 true/false statements used to predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Here's a quick rundown of the keys:
1. **Party Mandate**: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. **Contest**: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. **Incumbency**: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. **Third party**: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
5. **Short-term economy**: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. **Long-term economy**: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. **Policy change**: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. **Social unrest**: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. **Scandal**: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. **Foreign/military failure**: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. **Foreign/military success**: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. **Incumbent charisma**: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. **Challenger charisma**: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
To use the Lichtman keys to predict the outcome:
1. Compare each key against the current political and economic conditions.
2. If six or more keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. Otherwise, it is predicted to win.
Let's apply this to a hypothetical 2024 election with Kamala Harris as the incumbent-party candidate and Donald Trump as the challenger, assuming the current situation continues:
1. **Party Mandate**: True (Democrats need to hold the House).
2. **Contest**: True (Assuming no serious challenger to Kamala).
3. **Incumbency**: False (Harris is not the incumbent president).
4. **Third party**: True (Assuming no significant third party).
5. **Short-term economy**: True (Assuming no recession).
6. **Long-term economy**: False (Economic growth is under scrutiny).
7. **Policy change**: True (Assuming significant changes).
8. **Social unrest**: False (Sustained social unrest could be argued).
9. **Scandal**: False (Depends on ongoing investigations).
10. **Foreign/military failure**: True (No major failures).
11. **Foreign/military success**: True (Assuming some successes).
12. **Incumbent charisma**: False (Harris's charisma is debated).
13. **Challenger charisma**: True (Trump has charisma).
If 6 or more of these keys turn false, Harris would be in trouble. Based on a rough estimate, Harris has around 4 likely "false" keys, suggesting the race could be close.
Tax those who make over $400,000 per year on a bell curve to a maximum of 60% for those who make 2 million or more per year. It would equate to 40% to 60% on those top 5 percent earners.
Good article. Tom Sowell’s question to Harris: what is your fair share of what somebody else has earned?
Harris is right on, again a great read.